After receiving just 14% of first preference votes in the 2016 general election and a loss of one-third of local authority seats in the 2019 local election, it is no surprise that the outcome of the 2020 general election was described as “something of a revolution in the ballot box” by Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald. Sinn Féin received 24.5% of first preference votes, making them the most popular party in the country – a seismic shift in support. The left-wing nationalist party garnered votes across all age groups, however young people in particular facilitated the achievement of this historic result.

Various factors contributed to the transformation of Sinn Féin’s popularity. Since the foundation of the state, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have dominated Irish politics. Sinn Féin has been traditionally disregarded as a contender for government due to its historical association with the Troubles and the (provisional) Irish Republican Army (IRA). The change of leadership in 2018 from Gerry Adams to McDonald represented revitalisation for the party, with a new public perception especially among the youth; a cohort of voters born after the Good Friday Agreement. With successive Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael governments throughout the 2010s, it became increasingly difficult for either of these parties to represent change. Sinn Féin on the other hand, with their anti-establishment values, perfectly epitomised an alternative. How could Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael promise to solve the health and housing crises (the most important issues to voters during the 2020 campaign) when it has been those parties that had perpetuated these issues for years?

Sinn Féin’s manifesto Giving workers and families a break – a manifesto for change was published a month before the 2020 general election. It displayed promising policies for tackling the housing crisis, an issue especially pertinent to the younger generations. Sinn Féin pledged to build 100,000 homes within five years, abolish the property tax and freeze rents. Upon its release McDonald stated: “A whole generation of young people are now locked out of homeownership, thinking about emigrating and moving back in with their parents in their thirties… Sinn Féin will ensure affordable housing is available and really affordable to people”, expressing empathy for a sentiment shared by much of the electorate, especially under 35s. Sinn Fein’s commitment to the housing issue, and acting as an alternative to the monotony of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael governments, may have encouraged voters who traditionally wouldn’t have voted for Sinn Féin, to do so – resulting in higher votes than ever before.

Despite winning the popular vote in the 2020 election, Sinn Féin did not go on to form a government. They simply had not run enough candidates, winning only 37 seats as a result. Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil ruled out a coalition. Following the success of the 2020 general election, Sinn Féin ended up as the main opposition party and extremely popular among younger voters. According to an Irish Times/Ipsos poll, Sinn Féin reached 36% in opinion polls by the middle of 2022, making it seem like a Sinn Féin led government would be an inevitable outcome of the next general election. The party’s left-leaning and populist values continued to appeal to younger voters, as well as their traditional demographic of voters, many of whom come from working-class backgrounds.

It’s looking like a general election is coming our way this November despite Simon Harris’ intention to bring his government to its full term. Their success in 2020 and subsequent opinion polls would indicate Sinn Féin are on track for victory, however the reality is quite the opposite. Following the most recent opinion polls Sinn Féin have dropped to only 20%. With Harris as the new Taoiseach, his youth and eloquent speaking has reinvigorated Fine Gael for some of the electorate, resulting in 27% support according to the Irish Times/Ipsos poll, indicating the decline in support for Sinn Féin.

Since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine war and the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions, Ireland has seen a large increase in the amount of people migrating. Between April 2023 and April 2024, nearly 150,000 people immigrated to Ireland – the highest figure in 17 years. Numerous protests, attacks on international protection centres, the riots in November 2023 and in Coolock this July have drawn the electorate’s attention to immigration. It was the issue most noted by 29% of voters when raised by candidates in May 2024, moving topics like housing and health further down the agenda. Sinn Féin’s reaction, or lack thereof, to the government’s immigration policy and these public displays of violence has continuously missed the mark for voters.

Sinn Féin have produced a contradictory response regarding immigration. McDonald has emphasised the importance of “migrant workers in many areas of our society, not least our health service”, while simultaneously outlining that Ireland “must have an immigration policy that makes sense to people”. This response conveys an attempt to appease the various groups that make up the voter basis of Sinn Féin. The party have found themselves in an awkward position; a tougher stance on immigration would alienate many younger left-leaning voters from the party, however 44% of Sinn Féin voters would support a candidate who would advocate for such a system as opposed to 32% and 31% of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael voters respectively. Sinn Féin have already lost sums of support, as is evident in the local and European elections earlier this year. Some former supporters who now deem Sinn Féin “traitors” due to their stance on immigration subsequently allocated their votes to independent or far-right candidates who want a tighter border policy.

With the poor outcome in the local and European elections, the drop in opinion polls this year and polarising views on immigration, Sinn Féin have a lot of work to do in a small amount of time. As politicians and parties begin to order posters, complete manifestos and select candidates for a potential November general election, Sinn Féin have published their housing policy – A Home of Your Own is ambitious and promises to deliver 300,000 houses across a five-year period. Perhaps this plan will bring the attention of voters, specifically younger voters, back to housing – the issue that once granted Sinn Féin such success.